A Twitter chain by Ehsani.
Ehsani is a Syrian American banker from Aleppo. He has written for Joshua Landis’ Syria Comment blog and, if I remember correctly, was editor of that blog for a while beginning some time in 2011. Ehsani, posts some of the most authentic and enlightening twitter chains on current conditions in Syria. They are the remarks of a well educated and thoughtful individual with an intimate relation to the events at hand. He has just returned from a visit to Aleppo, to post another chain of moving and insightful comments.
I have highlighted or responded to some of his remarks. These are my own thoughts and hopefully he will not be offended by their inclusion. Thank you dear Ehsani for sharing your understanding with us.
1- Having just been to my city of birth #Aleppo and back, you cannot but keep asking yourself same question over & over: All this destruction and for what? How can a city of nearly 4 million people be subjected to this madness? Those still in the city are still dazed and numb
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) November 17, 2017
2-Pictures or videos can’t capture the scope, breadth and eeriness of what had happened. Analysts have often talked about East & West Aleppo as if they were describing East & West Berlin of old. Growing up & before this war, no one in Aleppo talked in such terms
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) November 17, 2017
3-What people refer to as East Aleppo are residential neighborhoods the majority of which grew out of Syria’s population dynamics over past decades that saw country’s population double in size nearly every every 22 years. Few have really understood profound implications of this
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) November 17, 2017
4-Most critically, Syrian State itself failed to appreciate the compounding effect of population growth and its profound effect. This dynamic was most intense inside the poorer neighborhoods of Syrian society where family size and low incomes seemed to often go together
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) November 17, 2017
5- In a must read piece by Kheder Khaddour https://t.co/17l1K0viwN , the socio-economic dynamics of Aleppo were discussed. All said, the note unduly overcomplicates the issue however. Both the State & country’s population itself were oblivious to the dangers ahead.
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) November 17, 2017
6- When rebels stormed through the city in July 2012, there was zero surprise as to where these rebels came from & which neighborhoods would end up accommodating them. They came from Maraa, Anadan & Hreitan and were welcomed in Sakhour, Bab al Neirab & Shaar
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) November 17, 2017
7-Outside of foreign meddling & intervention, Syria’s uprising was a chance for the have-nots and religious conservatives (Islamists & MB) to topple the seculars & wealthier establishment. What became known as E Aleppo was largely home for the former group
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) November 17, 2017
8-This is not to say that genuine group of Syrians asking for freedom & democracy didn’t exist. We’ve all been there done that. Truth is post Assad/Baath Syria was going to be dominated by religious conservatives who are more organized & armed with words of God as their platform
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) November 17, 2017
9-Non Islamist Syrians & western officials & analysts are yet to put a forth a credible plan to deal with a day-after scene where forced removal of Assad/Baath results in bloody & violent mass settling of scores often on sectarian & religious grounds.
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) November 17, 2017
Non Islamist Syrians & western officials & analysts are yet to put a forth a credible plan to deal with a day-after scene where forced removal of Assad/Baath results in bloody & violent mass settling of scores often on sectarian & religious grounds.
10- I once asked this very question to a group of UN officials dealing with #Syria. I was met with a blank stare. One participant later suggested presence of UN’s blue helmets as one solution before others in the same group reminded him that this is impossible & can’t happen
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) November 17, 2017
One participant later suggested presence of UN’s blue helmets as one solution before others in the same group reminded him that this is impossible & can’t happen
Will they now recommend the ‘White Helmets’?
11-Without skin in the game, analysts & officials saw in Assad’s “transition out of power” as THE simple & elegant solution. They have done so for nearly 7 years totally ignoring & oblivious to Syrian modern history & society dynamics.
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) November 17, 2017
Oblivious to the needs and concerns of the Syrian People from beginning to end, the expressed concern for the welfare of the Syrian people was always a lie to justify a diverse collection self interested objectives.
12- In meantime, many of most destroyed neighborhoods of Aleppo stand empty & in ruin. Some are slowly coming back. The Govt is cleaning & paving main roads to help a bit, but the challenge is immense. This brings us to latest talk on reconstruction =>
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) November 17, 2017
13-Having realized that toppling #Assad is no longer their base case, Western policy makers & analysts have for months shifted to using reconstruction funding as their new policy tool to pressure Assad to negotiate/transition out of power. This is foolish & won’t work.
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) November 17, 2017
When I was in Syria in 2014, already, members of parliament in a meeting responded bitterly to the suggestion even of ‘reparations’, stating that they would not be willing to tie themselves to western economic control and asserting they they neither wanted or needed the assistance of those who have destroyed their country.
14-That Assad will give up or share power under pressure of promised reconstruction funding is ignorant and lazy analysis. Those calling for continued sanctions & starving Syrian State from getting help it needs to put country together are hurting very people they claim to defend
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) November 17, 2017
15-Those who claim to fight for displaced Syrians to return are using this issue to advance their own agenda of regime change. They are so upset to see Assad still there that they are willing to stay with status quo for years if it leads to him being unable to put country together
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) November 17, 2017
They don’t have to live the status quo. Syrians live it and Syrians will ultimately decide. When I saw how many weapons the US and her allies have dumped into Syria in just the last few months I as initially dismayed. It occurred to me then, that the wars won’t end until people in the targeted regions grow so tired of war that they refuse to pick up those weapons. This is one focus of the reconciliation programs the government has successfully used to unlock many opposition held areas. The people don’t want war.
16-Syrian leadership will not only reject to transition or share power under pressure of reconstruction funding but they are convinced that they are owed reparations for the destruction inflicted on Syria by the actions of Saudi, Qatar, Turkey and the west.
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) November 17, 2017
17-Note how those who are in the no-reconstruction-funding-camp hide behind their stated concern for corruption and how any such funding will likely enrich “regime insiders”. Truth is this is just the same excuse used to stop Assad from being able to put country together again
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) November 17, 2017
FYI: “regime insiders” only became wealthy through the neoliberal global economy after Bashar Assad made the decision to open Syria to global cultural exchanges and resources, and to initiate what he thought could be a positive engagement with the global economic architecture. I believe the decision was made in good faith. However, he declined to change the political stances that have been long standing barriers to acceptance within the western cultural sphere that identifies itself as the ‘international community’. Therefore, Syria merely switched tracks from sanctions to austerity (which directly targets the poor), and back to sanctions, and finally war. The people making this excuse, engineered this system of economic control. That is why:
18-Reality is that Syria WILL remain under Western sanctions for Assad is never going to comply with what Western capitals want him to do before they lift those sanctions. There will similarly be no Syrian Marshall plan to help channel the resources Syria needs to rebuild
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) November 17, 2017
There was no Marshall Plan in Vietnam, but they have risen from the ashes.
19-Residents of Aleppo are often heard saying: “international companies will come & help us rebuild”. When you press them to explain who and how, they have no answers. Chinese/Russians/Iranians are theoretically possible candidates but practical challenges are daunting
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) November 17, 2017
I hold out the hope that the Eastern block will be able to provide meaningful assistance to Syria for rebuilding. They are on a path to assume leadership of the ‘international community’ and western policy excesses are accelerating their programs.
20-Syria got here for multiple interconnected reasons. Those range from governance, economic, demographic, sectarian, regional & international factors. It’s this combined lethal cocktail mix that drove Syria’s ship with 23 million on board straight into the iceberg.
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) November 17, 2017
It is true that there are many factors for the Syrian disaster. However many countries, including the United States, have festering pockets of poverty and social discontent. The residents have not turned their guns on their neighbors and have not risen up in an armed insurrection. Lucky for us, there is no powerful entity able and ready to arm them, train them, pay them to fight and promise them victory in a war that would result in their taking the power of the state for themselves.
These problems are not Syrian alone. Poverty, class divisions, ignorance and a lack of opportunity plague far more of the worlds population than not. These conditions are the result of the rise of industrialization, corporatism and globalization. The local root of the Syrian war is an instance of a global problem, and we would do well to take heed before it is too late.
21-Once 1st Russian planes landed, goal of toppling Assad was over. Shockingly &. 2 years later, many still refuse to accept or come to terms with this reality. They still hope that Russians will 1 day strike a deal & leave or force Assad out. Wishful & faulty thinking at best
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) November 17, 2017
22-Assad is going nowhere. Neither are Russians, Iranians & his other allies who are unlikely to force him to give up. He also won’t negotiate over his own transition or exit. Western & regional capitals ought to keep this in mind when they craft their Syria policy going forward
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) November 17, 2017
Syria is at the fulcrum of a regional pivot to a collective self interest. There is no going back.
